2026 midterm election odds
Who wins the Senate, the House and the governor’s mansions, according to the money on Polymarket and Kalshi.
17 days to election day, November 3 · odds updated 10 min ago
Senate control
Details63% Democrats
Democratic chance on Polymarket, last 30 days
House control
Details90% Democrats
Democratic chance on Polymarket, last 30 days
Balance of power
Who controls the Senate and the House after the election
- Democrats win both62% · 63% / 61%
- R Senate, D House28% · 28% / 28%
- D Senate, R House<1% · <1% / <1%
- Republicans win both10% · 9% / 11%
Average of Polymarket and Kalshi; the pair after the dot is Polymarket / Kalshi.
Closest Senate races
The races where the favourite’s lead over the runner-up is smallest, averaged across both platforms.
Closest governor races
Senate seats most likely to flip
Chance the seat ends up with the other party.
- 1North Carolina SenateR → Dfavourite: Roy Cooper96%to flip
- 2Alaska SenateR → Dfavourite: Mary Peltola74%to flip
- 3Ohio Senate (special)R → Dfavourite: Sherrod Brown64%to flip
- 4Texas SenateR → Dfavourite: James Talarico62%to flip
- 5Maine SenateR → Dfavourite: Troy Jackson58%to flip
- 6Iowa SenateR → Dfavourite: Ashley Hinson43%to flip
Governorships most likely to flip
- 1Iowa GovernorR → Dfavourite: Rob Sand88%to flip
- 2Alaska GovernorR → Dfavourite: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins78%to flip
- 3Kansas GovernorD → Rfavourite: Ty Masterson76%to flip
- 4Ohio GovernorR → Dfavourite: Amy Acton71%to flip
- 5Nevada GovernorR → Dfavourite: Aaron Ford56%to flip
- 6Georgia GovernorR → Dfavourite: Rick Jackson49%to flip
How to read these odds
Every number is a market price: a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens trades at its probability in cents. When both platforms list a race we show each price and the average; differences of a few points are normal, and larger ones are trading opportunities explained in our arbitrage guide.
Odds refresh about every 10 minutes from the platforms’ public data. Markets are not polls: they move on polls, fundraising, news and the money traders put behind their views. New to this? Start with how prediction markets work.
Frequently asked questions
When is the 2026 midterm election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats (33 regular seats plus special elections in Ohio and Florida) and 36 governorships are on the ballot.
Who is favoured to win the Senate in 2026?
Prediction markets give Democrats about a 63% chance of controlling the Senate (Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 62% for Democrats).
Who is favoured to win the House in 2026?
Markets give Democrats about a 90% chance of winning the House majority (218 seats).
What do the percentages mean?
Each number is the price of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ means traders put the chance at about 62%. Where both Polymarket and Kalshi list a race, we show both and their average.
How do election markets resolve?
Each market settles according to its own rules, usually once major news organisations call the race or the result is certified. Close races and recounts can delay resolution; the rules are linked from each market page.
Can I trade election markets in the US?
Kalshi and Polymarket US are federally regulated exchanges open to US users, and both list the midterms. See our guides on whether Kalshi and Polymarket are legal where you live.