Who will control the Senate?
Live odds on Senate control and all 35 races, from Polymarket and Kalshi.
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47 · odds updated 8 min ago
Which party wins the Senate
63% Democrats
Democratic chance on Polymarket, last 30 days
Expected seats after the election
Seats not on the ballot plus each party’s chance in every race
51.2
Democrats
48.3
Republicans
Independents: 0.5
- Democrats need
- 51 seats (net +4)
- Likely D pickups
- 5
- Likely R pickups
- 0
10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026
Ranked by the chance the seat ends up with the other party, averaged across Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 1North Carolina SenateR → Dfavourite: Roy Cooper96%to flip
- 2Alaska SenateR → Dfavourite: Mary Peltola74%to flip
- 3Ohio Senate (special)R → Dfavourite: Sherrod Brown65%to flip
- 4Texas SenateR → Dfavourite: James Talarico62%to flip
- 5Maine SenateR → Dfavourite: Troy Jackson58%to flip
- 6Iowa SenateR → Dfavourite: Ashley Hinson43%to flip
- 7Kansas SenateR → Dfavourite: Roger Marshall37%to flip
- 8Michigan SenateD → Rfavourite: Abdul El-Sayed32%to flip
- 9Nebraska SenateR → Dfavourite: Pete Ricketts28%to flip
- 10South Carolina SenateR → Dfavourite: Darline Graham Nordone16%to flip
How many seats?
The seat-count markets: each bar is the chance a party ends up with that many seats.
Republican Senate seats
PolymarketDemocratic Senate seats
KalshiEvery 2026 Senate race
Closest races first. The favourite is the candidate with the highest average price; the flip chance is how likely the seat changes party.
- SCSouth CarolinaHeld by RepublicansRDarline Graham Nordone85%—16%
- LALouisianaHeld by RepublicansRAndy Barr—96%6%
- IAIowaHeld by RepublicansRAshley Hinson58%56%43%
- MEMaineHeld by RepublicansDTroy Jackson60%57%58%
- TXTexasHeld by RepublicansDJames Talarico63%61%62%
- KSKansasHeld by RepublicansRRoger Marshall63%63%37%
- OHOhio (special)Held by RepublicansDSherrod Brown65%64%65%
- MIMichiganHeld by DemocratsDAbdul El-Sayed70%67%32%
- NENebraskaHeld by RepublicansRPete Ricketts72%73%28%
- AKAlaskaHeld by RepublicansDMary Peltola74%74%74%
- MNMinnesotaHeld by DemocratsDPeggy Flanagan87%85%14%
- NHNew HampshireHeld by DemocratsDChris Pappas90%89%11%
- MSMississippiHeld by RepublicansRCindy Hyde-Smith91%89%10%
- FLFlorida (special)Held by RepublicansRAshley Moody91%90%10%
- MTMontanaHeld by RepublicansRKurt Alme92%90%9%
- SDSouth DakotaHeld by RepublicansRMike Rounds93%92%8%
- ARArkansasHeld by RepublicansRTom Cotton94%93%6%
- IDIdahoHeld by RepublicansRJim Risch96%94%5%
- NJNew JerseyHeld by DemocratsDCory Booker—95%5%
- TNTennesseeHeld by RepublicansRBill Hagerty96%95%5%
- GAGeorgiaHeld by DemocratsDJon Ossoff96%95%5%
- NCNorth CarolinaHeld by RepublicansDRoy Cooper96%96%96%
- ALAlabamaHeld by RepublicansRBarry Moore—97%3%
- KYKentuckyHeld by RepublicansRAndy Barr97%—3%
- OKOklahomaHeld by RepublicansRKevin Hern98%96%3%
- VAVirginiaHeld by DemocratsDMark Warner98%98%2%
- NMNew MexicoHeld by DemocratsDBen Ray Luján98%97%2%
- ILIllinoisHeld by DemocratsDJuliana Stratton99%97%2%
- DEDelawareHeld by DemocratsDDemocrat97%99%2%
- OROregonHeld by DemocratsDJeff Merkley—98%2%
- WVWest VirginiaHeld by RepublicansRShelley Moore Capito—98%2%
- MAMassachusettsHeld by DemocratsDEd Markey98%98%2%
- COColoradoHeld by DemocratsDJohn Hickenlooper99%99%1%
- WYWyomingHeld by RepublicansRHarriet Hageman—99%1%
- RIRhode IslandHeld by DemocratsDJack Reed99%>99%<1%
Odds come from the platforms’ public data and refresh about every 10 minutes. Comparing the two platforms? Read Kalshi vs Polymarket. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Can Democrats flip the Senate in 2026?
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, since the vice president breaks ties for Republicans. Prediction markets put their chance at about 63%.
Which Senate seats are most likely to flip in 2026?
By market odds, the seats most likely to change party are North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio. The full ranking is on this page and updates every 10 minutes.
How many Senate seats are up in 2026?
35: the 33 regular seats of Class II plus special elections in Ohio and Florida. Republicans defend 22 of them and Democrats 13.
How are expected seats calculated?
We add the seats not on the ballot to each party’s chance of winning every race, averaged across Polymarket and Kalshi. It is an estimate of the average outcome, not a forecast of the most likely exact number.
What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi odds?
They are separate markets with separate traders, so prices differ by a few points. Both are shown for every race; for how the platforms compare on fees and rules, see our Kalshi vs Polymarket guide.