Iowa Senate race 2026 odds: Hinson vs Turek
Prediction markets make Ashley Hinson (R) the favourite in the Iowa Senate race, at 58% on Polymarket and 56% on Kalshi. Republicans currently hold it, and markets give about a 43% chance it changes hands. That makes it one of the closest races on the map.
Odds updated 8 min ago · election day November 3
RAshley Hinson
57%
Polymarket 58% · Kalshi 56%
DJosh Turek
43%
Polymarket 42% · Kalshi 44%
Democrats 43%Republicans 57%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 43%
- Platforms disagree by
- 2 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- RAshley Hinson58%56%57%
- DJosh Turek42%44%43%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ashley Hinson (Republican), at 57% on average across Polymarket (58%) and Kalshi (56%).
Which party holds the seat now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 43% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 17 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.