Texas Senate race 2026 odds: Talarico vs Paxton
Prediction markets make James Talarico (D) the favourite in the Texas Senate race, at 63% on Polymarket and 61% on Kalshi. A win would flip the seat from Republicans to Democrats.
Odds updated 8 min ago · election day November 3
DJames Talarico
62%
Polymarket 63% · Kalshi 61%
RKen Paxton
38%
Polymarket 38% · Kalshi 39%
Democrats 62%Republicans 38%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 62%
- Platforms disagree by
- 2 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DJames Talarico63%61%62%
- RKen Paxton38%39%38%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
James Talarico (Democratic), at 62% on average across Polymarket (63%) and Kalshi (61%).
Which party holds the seat now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 62% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 17 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.