Live election betting odds: how to follow the 2026 midterms in real time
Election Day is November 3. Where to watch live election odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, what they say about the Senate, House and key races today, and how prices behave on election night.
The 2026 midterms are on Tuesday, 3 November, and prediction markets are the fastest place to watch them. Live election betting odds on Kalshi and Polymarket update with every poll, ad buy and, on election night, every batch of counted votes.
As of 16 October 2026, markets make Democrats strong favourites to win the House and solid favourites to win the Senate. Our 2026 election hub shows every race with both platforms side by side, updated continuously.
Odds below are a snapshot from 16 October 2026.
Live election odds today
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats win the House | 90.5% | 90% |
| Democrats win the Senate | 64.5% | 63% |
| Democrats sweep both chambers | 62.5% | — |
| Republicans keep the Senate, Democrats win the House | 28.5% | — |
| Republicans keep both | 8.5% | — |
Live: Senate control, House control, and our Senate, House and governors pages.
The Senate races to watch
| Race | Leader (Polymarket) | Challenger |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | James Talarico (D) 62.5% | Ken Paxton (R) 37.5% |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) 61.5% | Jon Husted (R) 35.5% |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) 59.5% | Susan Collins (R) 41.5% |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) 58.5% | Josh Turek (D) 41.5% |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 69.5% | Mike Rogers (R) 29.5% |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola (D) 73.5% | Dan Sullivan (R) 25.5% |
Texas, Ohio, Maine and Alaska are Republican-held seats where markets favour Democrats, which is why Senate control leans Democratic.
Where to watch live election odds
- Our election hub puts Polymarket and Kalshi next to each other for every race, with the chance the seat flips and a combined average: 2026 midterm odds.
- Kalshi and Polymarket themselves, if you want to trade. Americans can trade election contracts on Kalshi (legal since a 2024 court win) and on Polymarket US: Kalshi vs Polymarket.
- Our live markets page for everything else that moves with the election, from shutdown deadlines to policy markets: live markets.
How odds move on election night
- Before polls close, prices drift on turnout reports and early-vote data, which are noisy. Big moves on rumours often reverse.
- When polls close, the first counted votes can mislead: some states count mail ballots first, others last, so a candidate can lead early and lose. Traders who know each state's counting order have the edge.
- As counts mature, prices race toward 0¢ or 99¢ well before networks call races. A market at 95% before the call is the crowd saying the outcome is all but known.
- Spreads widen on fast nights. Use limit orders; a market order in a fast-moving market can fill far from the last price. See what slippage means.
When election markets settle
Markets resolve under their rules, which usually name a source such as official certification or projections from major news organisations, and close races can take days or weeks. Your money is tied up until then. Contracts on control of Congress may wait for every seat to be decided.
Election odds vs polls
Polls measure what voters say today; markets price what traders think will happen on the day, including turnout and polling error. In 2024 markets were quicker than polling averages to price the eventual winner, but they are not infallible, especially in thin state-level markets. More: how do prediction markets work.
Live election betting odds: frequently asked questions
Is it legal to bet on elections in the US?
Yes, through CFTC-regulated exchanges. Kalshi won a court case in 2024 that allowed election contracts, and Polymarket US is also regulated.
Who is favoured to win the Senate in 2026?
Democrats, at about 63–64.5% on 16 October 2026.
Who is favoured to win the House?
Democrats, at about 90%.
Where can I see live election odds on election night?
On our 2026 election hub, which shows Kalshi and Polymarket side by side, or in either platform's app.
