Government shutdown odds: what Kalshi and Polymarket say about the December 2026 deadline
Federal funding runs out on December 11, 2026. Kalshi prices about a one-in-three chance of a shutdown the next day. How shutdown markets work, what moves them and how 2025–26 played out.
The government is funded until 11 December 2026, and prediction markets give about a one-in-three chance that it shuts down when that money runs out. On 16 October Kalshi's "Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?" traded at 34%.
Snapshot from 16 October 2026. Live price: Kalshi shutdown market. Polymarket opens its own market for each funding deadline; check our live markets page.
Government shutdown odds at a glance
| Current deadline | 11 December 2026 (stopgap passed in September) |
| Kalshi: shutdown on 12 December | 34% |
| Last full shutdown | 1 October – 12 November 2025, 43 days, the longest on record |
| Last partial shutdown | Homeland Security, 14 February to the end of April 2026, 76 days |
How we got here
The last twelve months set records:
- October–November 2025. Funding lapsed on 1 October 2025 and the government stayed closed for 43 days, the longest full shutdown in US history, until a stopgap was signed on 12 November.
- January–February 2026. A brief lapse from 31 January to 3 February ended when the House passed a spending package, but it left the Department of Homeland Security on a short extension.
- February–April 2026. DHS funding lapsed on 14 February amid a fight over immigration enforcement, and the department stayed partly closed for 76 days, the longest partial shutdown on record, until Congress funded most of it at the end of April.
- September 2026. Facing the 1 October start of the new fiscal year, Congress passed a stopgap (a continuing resolution) by wide margins, keeping agencies open at current levels until 11 December.
Markets tracked every step. In late July, for example, Polymarket's odds of a 1 October shutdown fell from 58% to 46% in three days as a stopgap took shape; the stopgap passed and that market resolved "No".
Why the December deadline is tricky
The 11 December deadline falls in the lame-duck session after the 3 November midterms. Markets currently expect Democrats to win the House, which means a Republican Congress negotiating its last spending deal before handing over power. That can cut both ways: a party about to lose leverage may want a long-term deal now, or it may prefer to push decisions into the new Congress with another short stopgap. Follow the election side on our 2026 midterms hub.
How shutdown markets work and resolve
- "Shutdown on [date]" markets pay $1 if there is a lapse in appropriations on that date, usually judged by official shutdown notices or the agencies' own announcements. A stopgap signed even minutes before midnight usually means "No".
- Duration markets ask how long a shutdown will last, in buckets of days.
- Partial shutdowns are the trap: a market may or may not count a lapse affecting only some agencies. The 2026 DHS shutdown is a recent example. Read the rules on the market page before you trade.
Basics of how contracts settle: how do prediction markets work.
What moves government shutdown odds
- Votes and their schedules: a stopgap filed, a cloture vote set, a chamber leaving town.
- Statements from leaders and the White House about what they will sign.
- The election result, which changes who has leverage in the lame duck.
- How close the deadline is: prices drift toward 0% or 100% in the final 48 hours.
A shutdown also feeds into other markets, such as economic data releases that can be delayed and recession odds.
Government shutdown odds: frequently asked questions
Will the government shut down in December 2026?
Markets say probably not, but it is far from certain: about 34% on Kalshi on 16 October 2026.
What are the government shutdown odds on Polymarket?
Polymarket lists a market for each deadline; see our live markets page for the current price.
What was the longest government shutdown?
The 43-day full shutdown from 1 October to 12 November 2025. The 2026 Homeland Security shutdown, 76 days, was the longest partial one.
How do you bet on a government shutdown?
Buy "Yes" on a shutdown market on Kalshi or Polymarket if you think funding will lapse, "No" if you think a deal or stopgap will pass. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
