CLARITY Act odds: will the crypto market structure bill become law? (Polymarket and Kalshi)
After a failed Senate vote in September, Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act about a 6% chance of becoming law in 2026. What the bill does, what happened, and how Kalshi prices 2027.
The CLARITY Act, the bill that would set the rules for US crypto markets, is stuck in the Senate. On 16 October 2026 Polymarket's "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?" traded at about 6%, and Kalshi gave 5% for law before 1 January 2027. Kalshi puts the odds of law before 2028 at about 26%.
Snapshot from 16 October 2026. Live: Polymarket (about $24 million traded) and Kalshi.
CLARITY Act odds at a glance
| Becomes law… | Market | Price |
|---|---|---|
| In 2026 | Polymarket | 6% |
| Before 1 January 2027 | Kalshi | 5% |
| Before 1 April 2027 | Kalshi | 6% |
| Before 1 July 2027 | Kalshi | 11% |
| Before 1 January 2028 | Kalshi | 26% |
What the CLARITY Act does
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) is the crypto market structure bill. In broad terms it:
- splits oversight of crypto between the CFTC, for trading in tokens treated as digital commodities, and the SEC, for tokens sold as investments;
- creates registration for crypto exchanges, brokers and dealers;
- sets a path for a token to move from SEC to CFTC oversight as its network matures.
It follows the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law signed in July 2025.
What happened in the Senate
The House passed the bill 294–134 in July 2025. The Senate took it up after committee work in 2026, and on 15 September 2026 a procedural vote to start debate failed 49–50, well short of the 60 votes needed. Every "yes" vote came from Republicans, and four Republicans voted no: Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, Jerry Moran and Thom Tillis. Tillis switched his vote to "no" at the end so that he could move to reconsider, a procedural step that keeps a second vote possible without starting over.
Polymarket's odds of law in 2026 fell from about 29.5% to around 6% after the vote.
Why the odds are so low for 2026
- Not enough Democratic votes. The bill needs at least ten Democrats with every Republican, or more if Republicans defect. Disputes centre on ethics rules for officials who hold crypto, interest-like rewards on stablecoins and anti-money-laundering provisions.
- The calendar. The Senate's autumn session runs into the 3 November midterms, leaving only the lame duck.
- The end of the Congress. Bills that do not pass by early January 2027 die and must be reintroduced in the new Congress. That is why Kalshi's "before 2028" price is several times its 2026 price.
Could there be a second vote?
Yes. The motion to reconsider is pending, and there is a precedent: the GENIUS Act failed its first Senate cloture vote 48–49 in May 2025, then passed a second one 66–32 eleven days later after changes. Traders watching for a revival look for a scheduled vote, a deal on the ethics language, or public support from a group of Democrats. Polymarket also lists side markets on how many senators, and which, will vote for the bill.
Why it matters for prediction markets
Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC, and both Kalshi and Polymarket list crypto markets. A law giving the CFTC more crypto oversight would shape the agency's workload and priorities. For crypto traders, the bill's fate is one of the bigger policy questions of the year: Polymarket crypto markets.
CLARITY Act odds: frequently asked questions
Will the CLARITY Act pass in 2026?
Markets think it is unlikely: about 6% on Polymarket and 5% on Kalshi as of 16 October 2026.
Did the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act?
Yes. A cloture vote to begin debate failed 49–50 on 15 September 2026. A motion to reconsider keeps a second vote possible.
What are the CLARITY Act odds on Kalshi?
5% before 2027, 11% before July 2027 and 26% before 2028, on 16 October 2026.
Is the CLARITY Act the same as the GENIUS Act?
No. The GENIUS Act regulates stablecoins and became law in July 2025. The CLARITY Act covers crypto market structure.
