Polymarket crypto markets: how Bitcoin and Ethereum price markets work
Polymarket lists crypto markets from hourly “up or down” questions to year-end price targets. The main market types, how they resolve, what they cost, and how to sanity-check a price.
Polymarket crypto markets let you trade on where Bitcoin, Ethereum and other tokens will go, over windows from minutes to a year, plus crypto events such as ETF approvals, launches and laws. They are among the busiest markets on the platform, and they work differently from buying the coin.
Examples and prices from 16 October 2026. Rules and fees change; read each market's rules before trading.
The main kinds of Polymarket crypto markets
| Market type | Example | What decides it |
|---|---|---|
| "What price will Bitcoin hit" (touch) | ↑ $84,000 or ↓ $80,000 this week | Whether the price touches the level at any time in the window |
| "Bitcoin price on [date]" (range) | $82,000–84,000 on 16 October | Which bucket the price is in at a set time |
| "Up or down" (short interval) | Bitcoin up or down this hour | Whether the price is higher at the end of the interval than at the start |
| Year-end targets | Ethereum ↑ $3,000 or ↓ $2,000 in 2026 | A touch during the year |
| Events | A law passes, an ETF is approved | The event, per the rules |
Touch markets vs close markets
This is the distinction that catches most new traders. A touch market ("hit $84,000") resolves "Yes" the moment the price trades at the level, even for a second. A close or range market only cares about the price at one moment.
On 16 October, with Bitcoin around $83,000, Polymarket priced:
- ↑ $84,000 by 18 October: 28.5%
- ↓ $80,000 by 18 October: 14.5%
- $82,000–84,000 at noon on 16 October: 85.5%
For Ethereum's full year, "↓ $2,250" was 55.5% and "↑ $3,000" 40.5%, with ETH near $2,450. The live Ethereum market shows the whole ladder.
A rule of thumb for checking a touch price: when a coin has no strong trend, the chance of touching a level before a date is roughly twice the chance of finishing beyond it on that date. If a range market implies a 15% chance of closing above $84,000, a touch market much above 30% looks rich.
How crypto markets resolve
Each market's rules name the exact data source and moment: for example a specific exchange's BTC/USDT price, a candle on a given timeframe, or an oracle price feed. That matters because exchanges can differ by tens of dollars for a moment, and a touch can happen on one and not another. Always check:
- Which source decides it.
- Whether it uses the high/low (touch) or the close.
- The time zone of the deadline.
What crypto markets cost
On the global site, crypto markets carry Polymarket's highest taker fee rate, applied as rate × price × (1 − price), so fees are largest near 50¢ and smallest near 1¢ or 99¢. Makers who rest limit orders pay nothing and earn rebates. Worked examples: Polymarket fees vs Kalshi fees.
Short-interval markets also have wider spreads than their volume suggests, because prices change every second. Use limit orders; see what slippage means.
Who you are trading against
Fast crypto markets are dominated by automated traders and market makers connected through the API. They react to exchange prices in milliseconds. A manual trader rarely wins on speed; the edge, if any, is in a better view of volatility or of an upcoming event. How the bots and big wallets operate: Polymarket whale tracker and bots and the Kalshi and Polymarket APIs.
Crypto markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US
Kalshi lists Bitcoin and Ethereum price markets in dollars, including hourly and daily ranges, and US residents can find crypto markets on Polymarket US, with a selection that differs from the global site. Compare both on our live crypto odds page.
Polymarket crypto markets: frequently asked questions
Can you trade Bitcoin on Polymarket?
You trade predictions about Bitcoin's price, not Bitcoin itself. Each share pays $1 if the outcome happens.
What does "↑ 84,000" mean on Polymarket?
That Bitcoin's price will touch $84,000 at any time before the market's deadline, according to the source in the rules.
Are Polymarket crypto markets free?
No. Crypto has the highest taker fee rate on the global site; makers pay nothing.
Why did a market resolve "Yes" when the price on my app never reached the level?
Your app may use a different exchange. Markets resolve on the specific source named in their rules.
