Nevada governor race 2026 odds: Ford vs Lombardo
Prediction markets make Aaron Ford (D) the favourite in the Nevada governor's race, at 58% on Polymarket and 55% on Kalshi. A win would flip the governorship from Republicans to Democrats. That makes it one of the closest races on the map.
Odds updated 8 min ago · election day November 3
DAaron Ford
56%
Polymarket 58% · Kalshi 55%
RJoe Lombardo
44%
Polymarket 42% · Kalshi 45%
Democrats 56%Republicans 44%
Race facts
- Office
- Governor
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 56%
- Platforms disagree by
- 3 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DAaron Ford58%55%56%
- RJoe Lombardo42%45%44%
Other governor races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Aaron Ford (Democratic), at 56% on average across Polymarket (58%) and Kalshi (55%).
Which party holds the governorship now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 56% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 17 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.