NBA Rookie of the Year odds 2027: Yaxel Lendeborg leads, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson chase, and AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson start from behind
A week into the season, Kalshi and Polymarket make Warriors rookie Yaxel Lendeborg the Rookie of the Year favourite at 30–34%, ahead of Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson and No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa, who has just made his debut. No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson has fallen to about 5%. The full board, every contender’s numbers, how the price moved, how the award is voted and what history says.
In this article
The 2026 draft class arrived with enormous hype, and the Rookie of the Year race already looks nothing like draft night. On the morning of 29 October, Kalshi makes Golden State's Yaxel Lendeborg, the 11th pick, the favourite at about 34%. Polymarket has him at 30%.
Memphis's Cameron Boozer (No. 3) and Chicago's Caleb Wilson (No. 4) are next at roughly 20–25%. No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa made his debut only on Wednesday night, after an ankle sprain, and sits at about 15%. No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson, the consensus top prospect for most of last season, has fallen to about 5%.
These markets are early and move fast. A week ago, Lendeborg was at about 14%. Here is the board, then the case for each player.
The odds
| Player | Team (pick) | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | Warriors (11) | 34% (bid 33¢, ask 34¢) | 30% |
| Cameron Boozer | Grizzlies (3) | 22% (21¢ / 22¢) | 24% |
| Caleb Wilson | Bulls (4) | 19–23% (17¢ / 21¢) | 17% |
| AJ Dybantsa | Wizards (1) | 16% (15¢ / 16¢) | 14.5% |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | Kings (7) | 9–10% | 9% |
| Darryn Peterson | Jazz (2) | 4–5% | 5% |
| Kingston Flemings | Hawks | 1% | 1.8% |
| Keaton Wagler | Clippers (5) | 1–2% | 0.5% |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | Nets (6) | 1–2% | 0.8% |
| Aday Mara | Thunder (12) | 1–2% | 0.6% |
Kalshi and Polymarket, 29 October 2026, about 7 a.m. ET. Where the Kalshi bid and ask are far apart, the range runs from the bid to the last trade. Polymarket prices are the midpoint.
The two exchanges agree on the order of the top six, and they are within a few points on each. Kalshi's market is the busier one for the leaders: about 358,000 contracts have traded on Lendeborg and about 255,000 on Wilson. Live prices: Rookie of the Year on Kalshi · on Polymarket.
Source: Kalshi market data, KXNBAROY-27, daily candles to 28 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Lendeborg | Boozer | Dybantsa | Peterson | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | 7% | 20% | 19% | 17% |
| 1 Oct | 10% | 22% | 16% | 16% |
| 7 Oct | 11% | 24% | 19% | 20% |
| 13 Oct | 14% | 24% | 20% | 18% |
| 19 Oct | 15% | 26% | 15% | 15% |
| 22 Oct | 14% | 26% | 15% | 15% |
| 25 Oct | 16% | 30% | 9% | 9% |
| 26 Oct | 23% | 29% | 10% | 6% |
| 27 Oct | 27% | 23% | 13% | 4% |
| 28 Oct | 27% | 22% | 16% | 5% |
Before the season, this was a four-way race between the top four picks plus Lendeborg on the outside. One week of games has split it in two. Lendeborg and Boozer went up, Dybantsa's absence pushed him down until his debut, and Peterson has drifted down all month.
The contenders
The per-game numbers below are from NBA.com's first Kia Rookie Ladder of the season, published on 28 October, unless noted. They cover only three or four games, so treat them as a first impression.
Yaxel Lendeborg, Warriors: 34%
- 21.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists a game, the most points of any rookie. He was second on the ladder.
- 31 points, 12 rebounds and six assists in a 134–114 win at Denver. He is one of three rookies to score 30 so far.
- 87 points in his first four games, the second-highest opening total by a Warriors rookie. Only Wilt Chamberlain, with 150 in 1959, scored more, according to Yahoo Sports.
Lendeborg is not a typical lottery pick. He was born on 30 September 2002, so he is 24, at least three years older than any of the ten players taken before him. He spent a season at Michigan after Arizona Western and UAB. There he was Big Ten Player of the Year and led the Wolverines to the national championship, averaging 15.1 points and 6.8 rebounds.
The case for him is opportunity. ESPN wrote in the preseason that the Warriors' season hinges on him, and he is getting the touches to match. The case against is the team: Golden State is 1–3. Voters like rookies whose numbers come in winning games, though it is not a rule.
Cameron Boozer, Grizzlies: 22–24%
- 14.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists. He was first on the ladder.
- Memphis is 4–0, and Boozer is plus-36 in those games.
- 25 points, 13 rebounds and six assists against Lendeborg's Warriors. At 19 years and 97 days, he became the third-youngest player in NBA history with 25, 10 and 5 in a game, behind only Cooper Flagg and LeBron James.
Boozer is the opposite case to Lendeborg: fewer points, but a winning team and an all-round line. The Kalshi chart shows how close the race already is. Boozer was the favourite at 30–35% around 24–25 October, before Lendeborg's scoring overtook him.
Caleb Wilson, Bulls: 17–23%
- 21.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.8 steals. He was third on the ladder.
- 30 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, two steals and a block in a loss to Washington. The Bulls' own game post had him at 10-for-24 from the field.
Wilson is one of three first-year players averaging 20 points. His price has been the steadiest of the leaders, closing between about 20% and 28% every day for the past six weeks. Kalshi's spread on him is wide this morning, with a bid of 17 cents against an ask of 21, so the 23% last trade overstates where he could be bought or sold.
AJ Dybantsa, Wizards: about 15%
The No. 1 pick missed Washington's first four games with a sprained left ankle. He made his debut on 28 October against Cleveland and led the Wizards with 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting, plus two rebounds and two assists, in about 26–27 minutes under a minutes restriction. That was the most by a Wizards rookie in his debut since Tom Gugliotta scored 20 in 1992. Washington still lost 121–111 after leading 69–59 at halftime.
The market had marked him down while he was out, from about 20% in mid-October to 9% on 25 October. It has since recovered to about 16% on Kalshi. Missing four games costs little in an 82-game season. The bigger question is how quickly his minutes go up.
Darius Acuff Jr., Kings: about 9–10%
- 21.5 points, 2.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists. He was fourth on the ladder.
- A rookie-high 33 points in a loss to Portland, also the most by a teenager in Kings history.
- 23.3 shots a game, second in the league behind Anthony Edwards.
A volume scorer can win this award in a thin year. This field is not thin, which helps explain why the market keeps him around 10%.
Darryn Peterson, Jazz: about 5%
Peterson went second in June, picked by Utah after Washington took Dybantsa. He was the consensus top prospect for much of his season at Kansas. But he missed 11 games there with cramping, hamstring and ankle problems and an illness. The cramping was later traced to elevated creatine levels and a creatine supplement. Before the draft, Bleacher Report reported medical concerns among teams.
So far he is averaging 11.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists, sixth on the ladder. On Wednesday against San Antonio, he took a shot to the head on a dunk attempt and went to the locker room with a bloody nose in the first quarter. He returned to start the second and finished with 18 points in an overtime loss.
The market has gone from about 20% in early October to 4–5%. That is a big call on a handful of games. If he stays healthy and his scoring rises, this is the price most likely to look wrong in hindsight. If the injuries continue, it is the right one.
The long shots
- Keaton Wagler (Clippers, No. 5): 13.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists, with 40% from three through three games.
- Mikel Brown Jr. (Nets, No. 6): 10.3 points in about 22 minutes off the bench, with 17 points and a game-tying three in an overtime loss to Boston.
- Aday Mara (Thunder, No. 12): the 7-foot-3 centre is shooting 56.3% and had his first double-double against Phoenix.
- Kingston Flemings (Hawks): 4.3 assists a game. At about 1.8% on Polymarket, his market has traded about $295,000, one of the busiest in the field.
How the award is decided
Rookie of the Year is voted by a panel of 100 sports writers and broadcasters at the end of the regular season. Each ballot ranks three players: first place is worth 5 points, second 3 and third 1. The winner is announced in the spring, usually in late April. Last season's came on 27 April 2026.
Two rules matter for traders:
- The 65-game rule does not apply. The minimum-games requirement covers MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved, All-NBA and All-Defensive. Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man and the All-Rookie teams are exempt. An injured rookie can still win if he plays enough to impress voters.
- The market settles on the official announcement. Kalshi's market pays $1 on the winner and lists a "Tie/Co-Winners" outcome at about 1%. Polymarket's market resolves to the player the NBA names.
What history says
Last season's race shows how close it can get. Cooper Flagg won with 412 points, 56 first-place votes and 44 seconds, ahead of Kon Knueppel with 386. The 26-point margin was the second-smallest since the current voting format began in 2002–03. Flagg averaged 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists.
Top picks win most often. Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero and Flagg went first in their drafts. Ja Morant went second, Luka Dončić and LaMelo Ball third, and Scottie Barnes and Stephon Castle fourth. But it is not a lock. Michael Carter-Williams won in 2014 as the 11th pick, Lendeborg's slot, and Malcolm Brogdon won in 2017 as a second-round pick.
So a 34% favourite from outside the top ten is unusual, but not without precedent. The market is pricing what Lendeborg has done, more points and more of the ball than anyone, plus the chance the others catch up.
Source: Kalshi, KXNBAROY-27, 29 October 2026; Wilson at the midpoint of his bid and last trade
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Lendeborg (11th) | 34% |
| Boozer (3rd) | 22% |
| Wilson (4th) | 20% |
| Dybantsa (1st) | 16% |
| Acuff (7th) | 10% |
| Peterson (2nd) | 5% |
How to read these prices
A 34% price means the market thinks Lendeborg wins this about one time in three. A $1 contract on him costs 34 cents now and pays $1 in April if he wins. That is roughly a 2-to-1 payout, before fees.
Early-season award markets are some of the most volatile on either exchange, for three reasons:
- Small samples. Three or four games of shooting can swing a rookie's averages by several points.
- Minutes and health. A minutes restriction like Dybantsa's, or a knock like Peterson's, moves prices more than any box score.
- Narrative. Voters reward rookies on teams that matter, so team records feed into the odds as the season goes on.
If you trade them, spreads matter. On Kalshi the leaders trade a cent apart, but long shots often have no bid at all. Our slippage guide explains how to avoid overpaying, and the odds explainer covers converting prices to American odds.
Related reading
- NBA MVP odds
- NBA championship odds
- How to bet on the NBA on prediction markets
- The NBA's deal with Kalshi and Polymarket
- LeBron James retirement odds
Odds are market prices, not predictions of ours, and they change quickly. Nothing here is betting advice. Prediction markets are for adults where they are legal, so check the rules where you live.
