Cy Young odds 2026: Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski are 98% favourites on Kalshi and Polymarket
With the winners announced on 11 November, prediction markets treat both Cy Young races as settled: Cam Schlittler of the Yankees and Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers trade at about 98¢. Their seasons in numbers, how the odds moved from April to October, the runners-up, and how the markets settle.
In this article
Prediction markets have already handed out the 2026 Cy Young Awards. On 30 October, Kalshi and Polymarket price the Yankees' Cam Schlittler at about 98% to win the American League award and the Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski at about 97–99% in the National League. The Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) names its finalists on Monday, 2 November and announces the winners on Wednesday, 11 November.
Neither pitcher was the favourite in April. Here is how the races were won, what the markets say now and what is left to trade.
The odds
| Race | Favourite | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL Cy Young | Cam Schlittler (Yankees) | 98¢ | 98% (bid 97.6¢, ask 98.5¢) |
| NL Cy Young | Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers) | 97–99¢ | 97.3% (bid 96¢, ask 98.6¢) |
Kalshi last trade and quotes, Polymarket mid-price, 30 October 2026. Live prices: AL Cy Young on Kalshi · on Polymarket · NL Cy Young on Kalshi · on Polymarket.
Everyone else trades at about 1¢ or less, the floor for a contract that still has some theoretical chance. On Polymarket the next names are Dylan Cease in the AL (0.7%) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Chris Sale and Shohei Ohtani in the NL (around 1% each). Polymarket's AL market has traded about $1.3 million and its NL market about $1.1 million. On Kalshi, the Schlittler and Misiorowski contracts alone have each traded more than half a million contracts.
How Cy Young voting works
The award is voted on by members of the BBWAA: two writers from each MLB city, so 30 voters per league. Each fills in a five-place ballot, scored 7–4–3–2–1 points from first to fifth. The pitcher with the most points wins.
That system rewards consensus. A pitcher who is first on most ballots wins comfortably even if a few voters prefer someone else. With Schlittler and Misiorowski leading their leagues in ERA, the main question for the voters is who finishes second.
The awards calendar
| Date | Award |
|---|---|
| Mon 2 November | BBWAA finalists for every award, on MLB Network |
| Mon 9 November | Rookie of the Year |
| Tue 10 November | Manager of the Year |
| Wed 11 November | Cy Young Awards (with Reliever of the Year, 7–8 p.m. ET on MLB Network) |
| Thu 12 November | Most Valuable Player |
Source: MLB's awards-season guide, 26 October 2026, and Players Choice coverage.
Why the markets are this sure
Cy Young voting happens at the end of the regular season, before the playoffs, so the ballots are already in. Nothing that happened in October counts. The market is not forecasting baseball any more; it is forecasting how 30 writers in each league voted. When one pitcher led his league in the main categories, that is close to a formality. The remaining few cents of doubt reflect the time until the announcement and the small chance that ballots surprise everyone.
Cam Schlittler's season
Source: MLB.com; Players Choice Awards coverage (Dodger Blue, 29 October 2026)
Schlittler went 14–6 with an AL-leading 1.95 ERA over 193 2/3 innings in 33 starts, with a 0.92 WHIP and 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He finished with 239 strikeouts, second in the league according to Baseball Savant.
MLB.com noted that his 1.95 ERA was the lowest in the American League since Justin Verlander's 1.75 in 2022, and that only Spud Chandler (1.64 in 1943) and Ron Guidry have posted lower ERAs for the Yankees since 1913. The players' union agreed with the market: he won the Players Choice Award for AL Outstanding Pitcher on 29 October, ahead of Dylan Cease and Sonny Gray.
His October was mixed, though it does not count for the award: 6 1/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in the Wild Card win over Boston, then a loss in Game 2 of the Division Series against Tampa Bay.
Jacob Misiorowski's season
Source: Sports Illustrated (28 September 2026); Players Choice Awards coverage
Misiorowski's season was historic. He went 16–5 with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts against 44 walks in 174 2/3 innings over 30 starts, leading the majors in ERA and strikeouts. Sports Illustrated listed the rest:
- He also led the league in ERA+ (232), FIP (2.17), WHIP (0.802), hits per nine (4.9) and strikeouts per nine (13.0).
- His 1.80 ERA broke the Brewers' record for a starter, Mike Caldwell's 2.36 from 1978.
- It was the lowest ERA to lead the NL in a full season since Jacob deGrom's 1.70 in 2018.
- His 0.802 WHIP was the third-lowest by a qualified starter in a full season, behind Walter Johnson (1913) and Pedro Martinez (2000), per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Curt Hogg.
- In June he threw a 105.5 mph pitch, the fastest by a starter in recorded MLB history, and he threw 1,115 pitches of 100 mph or more, far more than any other starter.
He won the Players Choice Award for NL Outstanding Pitcher, ahead of Mason Miller and Chris Sale, and then pitched the Brewers to their first World Series title in Game 5 against the Rays (our report).
How the races moved
Neither race started this way. In April the markets backed the two reigning winners, Tarik Skubal in the AL and Paul Skenes in the NL.
Source: Kalshi market data, KXMLBALCY-26, daily candles
Show the dataHide the data
| Schlittler | Cease | Skubal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr | 7% | 3% | 34% |
| 14 May | 28% | 25% | 3% |
| 14 Jun | 55% | 18% | 2% |
| 14 Jul | 42% | 41% | 2% |
| 14 Aug | 64% | 33% | 0% |
| 31 Aug | 63% | 35% | 0% |
| 14 Sep | 95% | 1% | 0% |
| 14 Oct | 98% | 1% | 0% |
| 29 Oct | 98% | 0% | 0% |
In the AL, Skubal was the 34% favourite in mid-April but had faded to 3% a month later. Schlittler took over in late May. Toronto's Dylan Cease chased him through the summer, reaching 41% in mid-July and still trading at 35% at the end of August. By mid-September the market had decided: Schlittler 95%, Cease 1%.
Cease finished with a 2.40 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 169 innings over 29 starts, a fine season that would win many years. His ended early: the Blue Jays placed him on the injured list in late September with right shoulder inflammation, and Toronto finished last in the AL East at 79–83. He is expected to finish second in the voting.
Source: Kalshi market data, KXMLBNLCY-26, daily candles
Show the dataHide the data
| Misiorowski | Skenes | Sanchez | Yamamoto | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr | 17% | 23% | 15% | 19% |
| 14 May | 14% | 40% | 13% | 5% |
| 14 Jun | 58% | 5% | 22% | 3% |
| 14 Jul | 58% | 1% | 11% | 1% |
| 14 Aug | 83% | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| 31 Aug | 87% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 14 Sep | 93% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 14 Oct | 98% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 29 Oct | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
In the NL, Skenes rose to 40% in mid-May, then collapsed to 5% within a month as Misiorowski jumped from 14% to 58%. The Phillies' Cristopher Sanchez had a brief run near 40% at the end of May. From mid-July on, Misiorowski's price only went one way.
The other contenders
The players' union's own pitching awards give a good idea of who else will appear on ballots. The Players Choice finalists, voted by players, were:
| League | Winner | Other finalists |
|---|---|---|
| AL Outstanding Pitcher | Cam Schlittler | Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray |
| NL Outstanding Pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski | Mason Miller, Chris Sale |
MLB Players Association, announced 29 October 2026.
The BBWAA finalists, named on 2 November, may differ: writers and players do not always agree, and the BBWAA lists three finalists by votes received. In the NL, the Phillies' Cristopher Sanchez and the Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both briefly in contention in the markets, could also feature. On Polymarket, Chris Sale and Yamamoto trade at about 1% each.
What is left to trade
At 98¢, a contract on the favourite returns about 2% in two weeks if he wins, and costs almost the whole stake if he does not. The long shots cost 1¢ or less and pay $1. Those prices tell you what the market thinks of an upset: very unlikely, but not impossible, since the votes have not been published.
Two things can still move these markets before 11 November:
- The finalists on 2 November. Each league has three. If either favourite were somehow missing, the price would collapse; nobody expects that.
- Fees and capital. Some traders sell at 98¢ simply to free up money for other markets, which is why the price is not 100¢.
How the markets settle
- Kalshi pays $1 per contract on the pitcher who wins the BBWAA Cy Young Award for his league.
- Polymarket resolves on the official winner of the 2026 award; its markets close by the end of the year.
- Ties are extremely rare; check each contract's rules for how they are handled.
The rest of awards week
The Cy Young is one of five BBWAA awards announced over four days. The players' own awards, announced on 29 October, give a preview of the others:
| Players Choice award | AL winner | NL winner |
|---|---|---|
| Outstanding Rookie | Kevin McGonigle | Sal Stewart |
| Comeback Player | Yordan Álvarez | Zack Wheeler |
| Outstanding Player | Yordan Álvarez | Pete Crow-Armstrong |
The BBWAA's Rookie of the Year is announced on 9 November and the MVPs on 12 November; the MVP races are covered in MLB MVP odds 2026. For basketball's version, see NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the AL Cy Young in 2026?
Prediction markets give Cam Schlittler of the Yankees about a 98% chance. He led the AL with a 1.95 ERA.
Who will win the NL Cy Young in 2026?
Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers, at about 97–99%. He led MLB with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts.
When is the Cy Young Award announced?
On Wednesday, 11 November 2026, on MLB Network. Finalists are named on 2 November.
Who won the Cy Young last year?
Tarik Skubal in the AL and Paul Skenes in the NL. Both were the markets' favourites in April 2026.
Do the playoffs count?
No. Ballots are cast at the end of the regular season.
Key points
- Cam Schlittler (Yankees) is about 98% to win the AL Cy Young; Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers) is about 97–99% in the NL.
- Finalists are named on 2 November; the winners on 11 November.
- Schlittler led the AL with a 1.95 ERA; Misiorowski led MLB with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts.
- In April the favourites were last year's winners, Skubal and Skenes.
- Both favourites won the Players Choice pitching awards on 29 October.
Related reading
- MLB MVP odds 2026
- NBA Rookie of the Year odds
- Brewers win the World Series
- Sports prediction markets explained
- How prediction market odds work
Odds are market prices, not predictions of ours, and they change quickly. Nothing here is betting advice. Prediction markets are for adults where they are legal, so check the rules where you live.
