Brewers win the World Series for the first time, beating the Rays 4–1 in Game 5; William Contreras is MVP
Milwaukee beat Tampa Bay 4–1 at Tropicana Field on 28 October to win the World Series four games to one, the first title in the franchise’s history. Catcher William Contreras was named MVP. How Game 5 was won, the series game by game, how Kalshi priced the Brewers from 17% in September to a settled 100%, and the first 2027 odds.
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The Milwaukee Brewers are world champions for the first time. They beat the Tampa Bay Rays 4–1 in Game 5 at Tropicana Field on Wednesday night, 28 October, and took the World Series four games to one. It is the first title in the franchise's history, won in its 57th season in Milwaukee and 44 years after its only other World Series, the seven-game loss to St. Louis in 1982. MLB.com called it the city's first World Series title since the Milwaukee Braves in 1957.
Catcher William Contreras was named World Series MVP, as the prediction markets had expected since Game 3 (our MVP odds).
On Kalshi, the contract that pays $1 if Milwaukee wins the 2026 World Series has settled at $1. It had traded at about 17 cents in late September and about 65 cents on the eve of Game 1 (our pre-series preview).
How Game 5 was won
The Brewers had a 4–0 lead by the sixth inning, and the Rays never got close. These are the moments the official game story picked out.
- Jacob Misiorowski threw 5⅔ scoreless innings before calf cramping ended his night in the sixth. "I left it all out there on the field," he said afterwards.
- Cooper Pratt, the rookie shortstop, got hits in his fifth and sixth straight plate appearances. That tied and then broke the World Series record for a rookie. He added a sacrifice fly in the sixth that made it 4–0.
- Tampa Bay's only run came in the ninth, after a Liam Hicks double hit first base and took an odd bounce.
- Closer Trevor Megill limited the damage and finished it with a groundout to second baseman Brice Turang. The game ended at 11:13 p.m. local time.
Back in Milwaukee, about 31,000 fans watched on the video board at American Family Field.
"I'm just really, really grateful, really thankful that we did it. Like who believed it?" said manager Pat Murphy, 67, who has been with the club since 2016 and has managed it for the past three seasons. Christian Yelich put it more simply: "I think any time you win a World Series, it changes a place a little bit."
The series, game by game
| Game | Date | Result | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 October | Brewers 3, Rays 2 | Milwaukee |
| 2 | 24 October | Brewers 5, Rays 4 (from 4–0 down) | Milwaukee |
| 3 | 26 October | Brewers 10, Rays 1 | St. Petersburg |
| 4 | 27 October | Rays 4, Brewers 3 (12 innings) | St. Petersburg |
| 5 | 28 October | Brewers 4, Rays 1 | St. Petersburg |
Game 1 ended with Milwaukee stranding the tying run at third (Game 1 report). Game 2 was a comeback from four runs down (Game 2). Game 3 turned on an eight-run fifth inning with a postseason-record seven straight hits (Game 3).
Game 4 was the one the Rays will remember. Pratt homered in the top of the 12th to put the Brewers three outs from a sweep. Then Tampa Bay loaded the bases with nobody out, tied it on a Jonny DeLuca single, and won it on pinch-hitter Ben Williamson's single after midnight. MLB noted it was the 17th walk-off win by a team facing elimination in World Series history, and the first since 2011.
The title caps a season in which Milwaukee won a franchise-record and major league-best 103 games. The Brewers then went 11–2 in the postseason, beating the Padres in the Division Series and sweeping the Dodgers in the NLCS before beating the Rays.
The MVP: a catcher for the first time since 2015
Contreras went 8-for-21 (.381) in the five games, with a .435 on-base percentage, four RBIs, two runs and two walks, according to Yahoo Sports and CBS Sports. Behind the plate he threw out 4 of 9 runners trying to steal, Last Word on Sports counted.
He is the first catcher to win the award since Salvador Perez in 2015, and the eighth in World Series history. CBS Sports noted he became the 27th player with multiple hits in each of the first three games of a World Series.
The prediction markets had him as the favourite from Game 3 on. When Milwaukee went 3–0 up, Kalshi priced Contreras at about 58% and his teammate Jackson Chourio at 39%, with Polymarket at 55% and 38%. Kalshi's MVP market has now settled, with "Yes" on Contreras paying out at $1. The most traded name in that market was actually reliever Aaron Ashby, with about 1.23 million contracts, against about 940,000 on Contreras, a reminder that a lot of MVP trading is long shots (MVP market on Kalshi).
How the markets priced Milwaukee
In Kalshi's 2026 champion market, the Brewers' contract was among the most traded, at about 15.6 million contracts, against 13.8 million on the Rays. Here is the Brewers' price at the close of each day (midnight Eastern) from late September.
Source: Kalshi market data, KXMLB-26 (Milwaukee, Tampa Bay), daily candles to 28 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Brewers | Rays | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | 17% | 10% |
| 1 Oct | 17% | 9% |
| 4 Oct | 25% | 14% |
| 11 Oct | 35% | 22% |
| 13 Oct | 44% | 22% |
| 15 Oct | 66% | 15% |
| 19 Oct | 63% | 38% |
| 22 Oct | 65% | 37% |
| 23 Oct | 74% | 27% |
| 24 Oct | 82% | 17% |
| 26 Oct | 96% | 4% |
| 28 Oct | 100% | 0% |
A few things stand out.
- Most of the climb came before the World Series. The Brewers' price went from about 25% on 4 October to about 66% on 15 October, nearly tripling in eleven days. No single World Series game moved it as much.
- The market barely flinched at Game 4. In the hour after midnight, when the Rays walked it off, the Brewers' price dipped as low as 81 cents. By the next morning it was back around 90–91 cents, close to what the arithmetic says. A team up 3–1 needs one win from three, and at roughly even odds per game that is close to 88%.
- The last move was the busiest. In the hour before the final out, about 326,000 Brewers contracts changed hands as the price climbed from about 98.5 cents to 99.6.
On Polymarket, the Game 5 moneyline alone traded about $1.16 million. Its total-runs line of 6.5 went under: the game had five runs.
Source: Kalshi market data and our earlier reports, 23–28 October 2026
What the markets got right, and what they missed
Looking back over our reports from the series, the prices did well on the big question and were less sure on the details.
- The series. Kalshi and Polymarket made Milwaukee a 63–64% favourite before Game 1, close to the sportsbooks. A favourite at that price loses more than a third of the time, so the result was no shock. But it was the right side.
- Game 3. Polymarket had the Rays as slight favourites, at 51.5%, for Game 3 at home. Milwaukee won it 10–1. One game is a near coin flip whatever the price, and this one was a reminder of that.
- The sweep. Before Game 4, the markets gave the Brewers about 52% to finish it that night. They led in the 12th inning and still lost, so the sweep contract expired worthless after midnight.
- The MVP. The market had Contreras ahead of Chourio from Game 3, at about 58% to 39%. That is how the vote went.
The lesson is the usual one. Series and futures prices are probabilities, and single-game prices sit close to 50% for a reason. Our guide to reading prediction market odds covers how to turn a price into a chance and back. The accuracy study shows how well markets like these have been calibrated across thousands of contracts.
How the contracts settle
Both exchanges resolve on the official result, so there is nothing left to decide.
- Kalshi: the Milwaukee contract in the 2026 champion market paid $1 per contract. The Tampa Bay contract and every other team expired worthless. Payouts go straight to the account balance.
- Polymarket: the series and game markets resolved to Milwaukee, so each winning share is worth $1.
Anyone who bought the Brewers in late September at about 17 cents got back almost six times their stake, before fees. Our fees guide has the costs on each side. Whoever bought the Rays at 38 cents on 19 October lost it all.
Four franchises still waiting
Before Wednesday, five current franchises had never won a World Series. Now there are four: the Mariners, Padres, Rays and Rockies.
The Rays have now been to the Series in 2008, 2020 and 2026 and lost all three. This time they at least avoided the sweep, with the 12-inning win in Game 4, and scored in the ninth of Game 5 before Megill closed it out.
The first 2027 World Series odds
Kalshi has already listed the 2027 champion market, but it is very new and very thin. Some teams have traded only a few hundred contracts, and the spreads are several cents wide. So treat these as rough opening prices, not a consensus.
| Team | Last trade | Bid / ask |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 25% | 19¢ / 24.7¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 12.5% | 8.3¢ / 12.6¢ |
| New York Yankees | 12.5% | 5.2¢ / 11.9¢ |
| New York Mets | 9.6% | 3¢ / 9.1¢ |
| Atlanta Braves | 8.4% | 2¢ / 8.4¢ |
| San Diego Padres | 7.3% | 1¢ / 7.3¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 7.3% | 0.1¢ / 7.3¢ |
Kalshi, 29 October 2026, morning ET. Last trades in markets this thin can be stale; the bid is what you could sell at now.
The Dodgers, swept by Milwaukee in the NLCS, open as favourites. The new champions sit at about one in eight. Prices like these usually move a lot over the winter as rosters change, so they are worth watching rather than trusting. Live prices: 2027 champion on Kalshi. Our World Series odds guide explains how these futures work.
Key points
- The Brewers beat the Rays 4–1 in Game 5 on 28 October and won the World Series 4–1. It is the first title in franchise history.
- William Contreras is MVP after hitting .381 and throwing out 4 of 9 base stealers. He is the first catcher to win it since 2015.
- Misiorowski threw 5⅔ scoreless innings. Pratt set a rookie World Series record for consecutive hits. Megill got the last out.
- On Kalshi the Brewers went from 17% in September to 65% before Game 1 and 96% after Game 3. They settled at $1.
- In the first 2027 prices the Dodgers lead at about 25% and the Brewers are near 12.5%, in a very thin market.
Related reading
- World Series odds explained
- World Series MVP odds: how the market saw Contreras and Chourio
- Game 4 preview: one win away
- How sports prediction markets work
- How to bet on the NBA, now that the baseball season is over
Odds are market prices, not predictions of ours, and they change quickly. Nothing here is betting or investment advice. Prediction markets are for adults where they are legal, so check the rules where you live.
