MLB MVP odds 2026: Yordan Álvarez and Pete Crow-Armstrong lead, and why Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Cal Raleigh trade at 1%
Kalshi and Polymarket make Yordan Álvarez a 95% favourite for AL MVP and Pete Crow-Armstrong a 98–99% favourite in the NL, with the winners announced on 12 November. Their seasons in numbers, how Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani went from favourites to 1%, and what is left to trade.
In this article
- The odds
- How MVP voting works
- The awards calendar
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: a 40-40, 10-WAR season
- Yordan Álvarez: the best hitter in the American League
- How the AL race moved
- What the moves were worth
- Why Judge and Raleigh are at 1%
- How the NL race moved
- Last year's results, for comparison
- Players' votes and writers' votes
- What is left to trade
- How the markets settle
- Frequently asked questions
- Key points
- Related reading
The 2026 MVP races are all but decided in the prediction markets. On 30 October, Kalshi and Polymarket give the Astros' Yordan Álvarez about 95% to win the American League MVP and the Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong about 98–99% in the National League. The BBWAA names its three finalists in each league on Monday, 2 November and the winners on Thursday, 12 November.
The two most famous names in baseball, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who won the awards last year, trade at about 1%. So does last year's AL runner-up, Cal Raleigh. Here is how that happened.
The odds
| Race | Favourite | Kalshi | Polymarket | Next on Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL MVP | Yordan Álvarez (Astros) | 95–97¢ | 95.3% | Junior Caminero 4.1% |
| NL MVP | Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) | 99¢ | 98.5% | Shohei Ohtani 1.5% |
Kalshi last trade and quotes, Polymarket mid-price, 30 October 2026. Live prices: AL MVP on Kalshi · on Polymarket · NL MVP on Kalshi · on Polymarket.
These are busy markets. Polymarket's AL MVP market has traded about $1.06 million and its NL market about $1.39 million. On Kalshi, Crow-Armstrong's contract has traded about 1.5 million contracts and Ohtani's about 1.4 million, most of it when Ohtani was the favourite.
How MVP voting works
Like the Cy Young, the MVP is voted on by 30 BBWAA writers per league, two from each city. The MVP ballot is longer: ten places, scored 14–9–8–7–6–5–4–3–2–1. A player needs to be at or near the top of most ballots to win, which is why a season-long leader with no rival close behind becomes a near-certainty.
The awards calendar
| Date | Award |
|---|---|
| Mon 2 November | BBWAA finalists for every award, on MLB Network |
| Mon 9 November | Rookie of the Year |
| Tue 10 November | Manager of the Year |
| Wed 11 November | Cy Young Awards (with Reliever of the Year, 7–8 p.m. ET on MLB Network) |
| Thu 12 November | Most Valuable Player |
Source: MLB's awards-season guide, 26 October 2026, and Players Choice coverage.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: a 40-40, 10-WAR season
Source: MLB.com; Players Choice Awards coverage (Dodger Blue, 29 October 2026)
Crow-Armstrong hit 45 home runs, the most in the NL, and stole 41 bases, second in the league, joining the 40-40 club. He batted .280/.372/.570 with a league-best .942 OPS, 31 doubles, 8 triples, 107 RBIs and 119 runs. His 10.6 WAR on FanGraphs led the majors, making him the latest member of the 10-WAR club, as MLB.com put it; Baseball-Reference has him at 9.8.
On 29 October he won the players' own top honours: Players Choice Player of the Year and NL Outstanding Player, beating Ohtani in both. Dodger Blue's report on the awards called him the favourite for the NL MVP.
Yordan Álvarez: the best hitter in the American League
Source: Players Choice Awards coverage (Dodger Blue); MLB.com
Álvarez won the batting title and led the American League in average (.316), on-base percentage (.432), slugging (.601), OPS (1.033) and walks (109), with 42 home runs, 34 doubles and 106 RBIs in 158 games. His 42 homers were a career high. ESPN noted in August that he was chasing a Triple Crown.
He won the Players Choice AL Outstanding Player award, ahead of the Rays' Junior Caminero and the Royals' Bobby Witt Jr., and AL Comeback Player.
How the AL race moved
Source: Kalshi market data, KXMLBALMVP-26, daily candles
Show the dataHide the data
| Álvarez | Judge | Witt | Caminero | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr | 14% | 29% | 16% | 2% |
| 14 May | 14% | 49% | 11% | 2% |
| 14 Jun | 48% | 1% | 21% | 2% |
| 14 Jul | 61% | 1% | 15% | 13% |
| 14 Aug | 88% | 0% | 2% | 4% |
| 31 Aug | 94% | 0% | 3% | 7% |
| 14 Sep | 88% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| 14 Oct | 95% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 29 Oct | 96% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
Aaron Judge was the AL favourite for the first two months, at 49% in mid-May. Then his price fell to 1% in two weeks. The reason was an injury: Judge went on the injured list in early June with a fractured right rib, an injury believed to date from 26 April in Houston that he had played through. He missed more than three months, returned in September, then left a game on 16 September with a calf strain and missed the postseason.
Álvarez was already climbing. He passed 60% in July and 90% at the end of August, and has stayed there. Witt peaked at 22% in late May; Caminero had a brief run to 13% in July.
What the moves were worth
Award markets reward people who spot a breakout early. Crow-Armstrong's Kalshi contract cost about 1¢ in mid-June. A trader who put $10 into it then, for about 1,000 contracts, would hold contracts worth about $990 at today's price of 99¢, and $1,000 if he wins. The reverse is true for Ohtani: a contract bought at 85¢ in June is worth about 1¢ now.
Álvarez's path was steadier. He cost about 14¢ in April and May, and anyone who bought then would have roughly multiplied their money by seven. Those gains are only on paper until the award is announced and the markets settle.
Why Judge and Raleigh are at 1%
Judge won the 2025 AL MVP, edging Cal Raleigh, the Mariners catcher, in a close vote. This year the voters will look at full seasons, and Judge missed more than three months. Raleigh traded at 1–4% all season on Kalshi. For both, a 1¢ contract is a lottery ticket on a voting shock.
That matters for anyone searching "Aaron Judge MVP" or "Cal Raleigh MVP": the markets give each about a 1% chance. Judge's Kalshi contract has still traded about 270,000 contracts, mostly in the spring.
How the NL race moved
Source: Kalshi market data, KXMLBNLMVP-26, daily candles
Show the dataHide the data
| Crow-Armstrong | Ohtani | Soto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr | 1% | 63% | 5% |
| 14 May | 0% | 66% | 2% |
| 14 Jun | 1% | 85% | 6% |
| 14 Jul | 13% | 83% | 3% |
| 14 Aug | 46% | 53% | 0% |
| 31 Aug | 86% | 12% | 0% |
| 14 Sep | 98% | 1% | 0% |
| 14 Oct | 98% | 2% | 1% |
| 29 Oct | 99% | 1% | 0% |
Shohei Ohtani, who won his fourth MVP unanimously in 2025, was the NL favourite from opening day, peaking near 89% in late June. Two things changed that. Ohtani stopped pitching after 3 July because of knee and biceps problems, according to reports, which took away half of his case as a two-way player. Then, in the first days of September, he went on the injured list; BetMGM said it pulled its MVP odds at that point.
Meanwhile Crow-Armstrong caught fire. He was at 1% in mid-June, 13% in mid-July, 46% in mid-August, and 86% by the end of August, passing Ohtani as the Dodgers star's price fell from 43% to 12% in the last days of the month. By mid-September he was at 98%.
Last year's results, for comparison
In 2025 Aaron Judge won the AL MVP in a close vote over Cal Raleigh, who had a record-breaking season for a catcher, and Shohei Ohtani won the NL award unanimously, his fourth MVP. All three entered 2026 among the favourites. A year later, two of them trade at about 1% and the third, Raleigh, never rose above 4% on Kalshi.
Álvarez's Players Choice win made him only the third Astro to take the AL Outstanding Player award, after Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel, according to Rotowire.
Players' votes and writers' votes
The Players Choice Awards, voted by the players, matched the markets in both leagues: Álvarez in the AL, Crow-Armstrong in the NL and overall. The full list of finalists:
| Award | Winner | Other finalists |
|---|---|---|
| Player of the Year | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Yordan Álvarez, Shohei Ohtani |
| AL Outstanding Player | Yordan Álvarez | Junior Caminero, Bobby Witt Jr. |
| NL Outstanding Player | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber |
MLB Players Association, announced 29 October 2026.
The players' and writers' awards do not always agree, but when they do, and the season statistics line up, upsets are rare. Both MVP favourites also beat the same rivals the BBWAA is most likely to name as finalists.
What is left to trade
The favourites trade at 95–99¢. Buying them now returns 1–5% in two weeks if they win. The most interesting price is Junior Caminero at about 4% on Polymarket in the AL, the highest price for any non-favourite in the four races. Caminero is one of the three Players Choice finalists, and the market gives him a small but real chance of finishing first. Kalshi prices him lower, at about 2%.
Kalshi and Polymarket agree closely on the favourites, within a point or two, which is typical for well-traded markets: our price comparison study found a median gap of 1 point between the two exchanges across 91 liquid matched outcomes. Where they differ, as with Caminero, the gap usually sits in a thin long-shot contract.
The finalists on 2 November are the next event. A finalist list that matches the markets will push the favourites even closer to $1.
How the markets settle
- Kalshi pays $1 per contract on the player who wins the BBWAA MVP award for his league.
- Polymarket resolves on the official 2026 winner.
- The award is announced on 12 November; markets settle shortly after.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite for AL MVP in 2026?
Yordan Álvarez of the Astros, at about 95% on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Who is the favourite for NL MVP in 2026?
Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs, at about 98–99%.
What are Aaron Judge's MVP odds?
About 1%. He missed more than three months with a rib fracture and then the end of the season with a calf strain.
What are Shohei Ohtani's MVP odds?
About 1.5% on Polymarket and 1¢ on Kalshi, down from about 89% in June.
When is the MVP announced?
On Thursday, 12 November 2026, with finalists named on 2 November.
Key points
- Yordan Álvarez is about 95% to win the AL MVP; Pete Crow-Armstrong is about 98–99% in the NL.
- Winners are announced on 12 November, after finalists on 2 November.
- Crow-Armstrong had 45 HR, 41 SB and 10.6 WAR; Álvarez led the AL in AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS.
- Aaron Judge lost months to a rib fracture; Ohtani stopped pitching in July and went on the IL in September.
- Judge, Ohtani and Cal Raleigh all trade at about 1%.
Related reading
- Cy Young odds 2026
- World Series MVP odds
- Brewers win the World Series
- NFL MVP odds
- Sports prediction markets explained
Odds are market prices, not predictions of ours, and they change quickly. Nothing here is betting advice. Prediction markets are for adults where they are legal, so check the rules where you live.
