NFL MVP odds 2026: Josh Allen and Brock Purdy lead on Kalshi, Polymarket and the sportsbooks
Josh Allen is the NFL MVP favourite at about 28–30% on Kalshi and Polymarket, just ahead of Brock Purdy of the unbeaten 49ers at about 25%. Patrick Mahomes is third. The odds, the stats through Week 6, how prediction markets compare with DraftKings and FanDuel, and why a quarterback almost always wins.
In this article
The 2026 NFL MVP race is a two-man contest so far. Buffalo's Josh Allen is the favourite at about 28% on Kalshi and 30.5% on Polymarket, with San Francisco's Brock Purdy, quarterback of the league's only unbeaten team, close behind at about 24–26.5%. Patrick Mahomes is a distant third at about 8–10%.
Prices on the morning of Sunday 25 October 2026, before Week 7's Sunday games; stats through Week 6.
NFL MVP odds
| Player | Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | DraftKings (24 Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Bills (5–1) | 28% | 30.5% | +185 |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers (6–0) | 24% | 26.5% | +225 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs (5–0) | 8% | 9.5% | +850 |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals (3–2) | 6% | 5% | +950 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars (4–2) | 5% | 4.5% | +1000 |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 5% | 7% | n/a |
| Drake Maye | Patriots (4–3) | 4% | 4% | +1500 |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs (RB) | 4% | n/a | +4000 |
Source: Polymarket, Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner (midpoint prices)
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 30.5% |
| Brock Purdy | 26.5% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 9.7% |
| Jordan Love | 7.3% |
| Joe Burrow | 5.2% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4.5% |
| Drake Maye | 4.2% |
Polymarket's MVP market has traded about $1.3 million. Live prices: NFL MVP on Kalshi · on Polymarket.
Markets vs sportsbooks
DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM have Allen at +175 to +185, which implies about 35–36%, and Purdy at +225 to +260, about 28–31%. Those figures include the bookmaker's margin, which inflates every price; prediction markets have none, so their prices add up to about 100% across the field. Even allowing for that, the books are slightly more confident in the top two than Kalshi and Polymarket are (prediction market odds explained).
The contenders
Josh Allen, Bills (about 28–30%)
The 2024 MVP has 1,504 passing yards, 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through six games, plus 240 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns: 17 total touchdowns for a 5–1 team. His rushing is what sets him apart; Buffalo had its bye in Week 7.
Brock Purdy, 49ers (about 24–27%)
Purdy leads the league with 14 touchdown passes (tied), against just 2 interceptions, with a 118.1 passer rating, and San Francisco is 6–0. The risk is his receivers: Ricky Pearsall is out for the season, several others are injured, and Mike Evans left Monday's win over Washington hurt. NFL.com's MVP tracker has Purdy first.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (about 8–10%)
Back from the knee injury that ended his 2025 season in December, Mahomes has led Kansas City to a 5–0 start with 1,309 yards and 9 touchdowns, numbers below his previous MVP seasons. His teammate Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl LX MVP who joined from Seattle, leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards.
The rest
- Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars): 1,480 yards, 14 touchdowns and a 106.2 rating for the AFC South leaders.
- Joe Burrow (Bengals): 1,361 yards and 11 touchdowns in five games.
- Drake Maye (Patriots): last year's runner-up has the most passing yards, 1,784, though with a game more than most, and has thrown 8 interceptions for a 4–3 team.
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens): a two-time winner, now a long shot after an ankle injury cost him two games.
Why a quarterback almost always wins
Quarterbacks have won 13 straight MVP awards; the last non-quarterback was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Last season Matthew Stafford beat Drake Maye 366 points to 361, the closest vote since 2003. That history is why a running back like Walker sits at 4% despite leading the league in rushing.
How the award is decided
Fifty Associated Press voters each rank five players, scored 10-5-3-2-1. Ballots are cast after the regular season, and the winner is announced at NFL Honors during Super Bowl week; Super Bowl LXI is on 14 February 2027 at SoFi Stadium. Both markets settle on the official winner (how markets resolve).
NFL MVP odds: frequently asked questions
Who is the NFL MVP favourite in 2026?
Josh Allen, at about 28% on Kalshi and 30.5% on Polymarket, with Brock Purdy close behind.
What are Brock Purdy's MVP odds?
About 24% on Kalshi and 26.5% on Polymarket; +225 to +260 at sportsbooks.
Who won NFL MVP last season?
Matthew Stafford of the Rams, by five points over Drake Maye.
When was the last time a non-quarterback won MVP?
Adrian Peterson, a running back, in 2012.
