NBA MVP odds 2026–27: Victor Wembanyama is the early favourite over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Victor Wembanyama is the early NBA MVP favourite at about 24–29% on Polymarket and Kalshi, ahead of two-time reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at about 18%. Luka Dončić, Anthony Edwards and Nikola Jokić follow. The odds, the sportsbook lines, last season’s vote, the 65-game rule and what could change.
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Victor Wembanyama is the early favourite for the 2026–27 NBA MVP. Kalshi gives the San Antonio star about 29% and Polymarket about 23.5%, ahead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has won the last two awards, at about 18%. Luka Dončić, Anthony Edwards and Nikola Jokić are next at 9% to 14% each.
Prices on the morning of 25 October 2026, a few games into the season.
NBA MVP odds
| Player | Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | DraftKings (24 Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 29% | 23.5% | +230 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18% | 18.5% | +380 |
| Luka Dončić | Lakers | 9% | 14% | +475 |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 11% | 13% | +1100 |
| Nikola Jokić | Nuggets | 12% | 12.5% | +600 |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 8% | 6.5% | n/a |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 6% | 2.5% | +1100 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Heat | 4% | 5% | +1400 |
Source: Kalshi, Pro Basketball MVP Winner
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 29% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 18% |
| Nikola Jokić | 12% |
| Anthony Edwards | 11% |
| Luka Dončić | 9% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 8% |
| Jayson Tatum | 6% |
Kalshi is the better guide here: its market is deeper, while Polymarket's MVP market has traded only about $62,000 and has wide spreads below the top five. Live prices: NBA MVP on Kalshi · on Polymarket.
Markets vs sportsbooks
DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM agree on the order: Wembanyama at +220 to +230 (about 30–31% before the bookmaker's margin), Gilgeous-Alexander at +380 to +400 (about 20%), Dončić at +475 (17%) and Jokić at +600 to +650. The two systems differ mainly on Dončić, whom Kalshi prices at just 9%.
Why Wembanyama is favoured
The 22-year-old was last season's Defensive Player of the Year and finished third in MVP voting, then reached the NBA Finals with San Antonio, losing 4–1 to the Knicks. Voters reward a rising star on a winning team, and the Spurs are among the favourites for the 2027 title (NBA championship odds). His first game was a reminder that it is a long season: in the opener against Oklahoma City on 20 October he scored 12 points on 1-of-13 shooting as the Thunder won 116–104.
The case for a three-peat
Gilgeous-Alexander has won back-to-back MVPs. Last season he averaged 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds on 55.3% shooting for a 64-win Thunder team and took 83 of 100 first-place votes (939 points to Jokić's 634 and Wembanyama's 569). Voters are often reluctant to give anyone a third straight award, a factor that tends to weigh on his price.
Other contenders
- Nikola Jokić, the 2024 winner and a three-time MVP, is averaging about 24 points, 11 rebounds and 7.5 assists in Denver's first games.
- Luka Dončić finished fourth last season; sportsbooks rate him higher than Kalshi does.
- Anthony Edwards was ruled ineligible for awards last season under the 65-game rule, after his appeal was denied.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time winner, starts his first season in Miami.
The 65-game rule
To be eligible, a player must appear in 65 games of at least 20 minutes (two games of 15 to 20 minutes also count), with an exception of 62 games for a season-ending injury. Last season Dončić (64 games) and Cade Cunningham (63) won appeals for extraordinary circumstances. An injury can end a candidacy outright, and the markets reprice instantly when that happens.
How the award is decided
One hundred media voters rank five players, scored 10-7-5-3-1. The winner is announced after the regular season, expected in May 2027; both markets settle on the official winner (how markets resolve).
NBA MVP odds: frequently asked questions
Who is the NBA MVP favourite for 2026–27?
Victor Wembanyama, at about 29% on Kalshi and 23.5% on Polymarket.
What are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP odds?
About 18% on both platforms, and +380 to +400 at sportsbooks, after back-to-back wins.
Who won NBA MVP last season?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder, his second in a row.
What is the NBA's 65-game rule?
Players must appear in at least 65 games, mostly of 20 minutes or more, to be eligible for MVP.
