NHL MVP odds 2026-27: Connor McDavid is a 60% Hart Trophy favourite after a 36-point start
Connor McDavid has 36 points in 13 games, 12 more than anyone else, and Kalshi and Polymarket now give him about a 60% chance of winning the Hart Trophy. The full odds board, how fast McDavid’s price has risen, last season’s ten-point loss to Nikita Kucherov, and the challengers.
In this article
- The odds
- McDavid's start
- Last season: the closest vote in 24 years
- How the Hart Trophy is decided
- How McDavid's price moved
- The early standings
- The challengers
- McDavid's scoring record
- Kalshi versus Polymarket
- Trading a thin market
- What the prices mean
- How the markets settle
- Frequently asked questions
- Key points
- Related reading
Connor McDavid has started the 2026-27 season so fast that the prediction markets have made him a clear favourite for the Hart Trophy in October. The Oilers captain has 36 points (8 goals, 28 assists) in 13 games, 12 more than anyone else in the league. Kalshi gives him about 60% to be named NHL MVP and Polymarket about 63%.
That is a big move: a month ago he was around 20%. Here is the full odds board, how McDavid's start compares, what happened in last season's vote, and who could catch him.
The odds
| Player | Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Oilers | 59–62¢ (last 59¢) | 62.7% |
| Macklin Celebrini | Sharks | 4–13¢ | 7.9% |
| Auston Matthews | Maple Leafs | under 6¢ | — |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Wild | 6–18¢ (last 4¢) | — |
| Jack Hughes | Devils | under 4¢ | — |
| Jack Eichel | Golden Knights | under 3¢ | — |
| Connor Bedard | Blackhawks | under 3¢ | — |
| Nikita Kucherov | Lightning | 1–9.5¢ | — |
Kalshi bid–ask (and last trade where useful), Polymarket mid-price, 30 October 2026. Polymarket lists few players with live quotes. Live prices: Hart Trophy on Kalshi · on Polymarket.
A warning about these prices: the Hart markets are thin. McDavid's Kalshi contract has traded about 9,400 contracts and Polymarket's whole market about $46,000. Spreads on the outsiders are wide, so a small order can move the price. The McDavid price is the only one with a tight quote.
McDavid's start
Source: NHL statistics API, 30 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| McDavid (EDM) | 36 |
| Kaprizov (MIN) | 24 |
| Draisaitl (EDM) | 24 |
| Matthews (TOR) | 23 |
| MacKinnon (COL) | 22 |
| Bouchard (EDM) | 22 |
| Celebrini (SJS) | 16 |
McDavid's 36 points in 13 games works out to 2.77 points a game. His 28 assists lead the league by 12, ahead of Matthew Tkachuk, Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox at 16. The Oilers are 9–2–2, second in the league on points behind Minnesota.
No player keeps that pace for a full season, but the start already gives him a cushion. Even at half that rate for the remaining 69 games he would finish with about 132 points, close to last season's 138. His teammates are also near the top: Leon Draisaitl has 24 points and 12 goals, and defenceman Evan Bouchard has 22.
Last season: the closest vote in 24 years
McDavid lost the 2025-26 Hart by ten points. Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov won his second Hart with 1,436 voting points to McDavid's 1,426, the closest vote since 2001-02. Kucherov had 72 first-place votes to McDavid's 68; Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon was third with 1,297 points.
McDavid led the league that season with 138 points and won the Art Ross Trophy. Kucherov scored 130 points (44 goals, 86 assists) in 76 games. The Professional Hockey Writers' Association, which votes on the Hart, judged Kucherov more valuable to his team.
That history explains part of the market. McDavid has won the Hart three times, in 2017, 2021 and 2023, and he is usually the best player in the league by points. But voters weigh value to the team, not just scoring, and in a close year the Art Ross winner can lose.
How the Hart Trophy is decided
The Hart Memorial Trophy goes to "the player judged most valuable to his team," and it is voted on by members of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association at the end of the regular season. Each voter ranks five players, scored 10–7–5–3–1. Last season the top three alone drew 192 first-place votes between them.
It is easy to confuse the Hart with two other awards:
| Award | What it is | Who decides |
|---|---|---|
| Hart Trophy | Most valuable player to his team | Hockey writers (PHWA) |
| Ted Lindsay Award | Most outstanding player | The players (NHLPA) |
| Art Ross Trophy | Most points in the regular season | Statistics |
The prediction markets on this page are on the Hart, the award most people mean by "NHL MVP."
How McDavid's price moved
Source: Kalshi market data, KXNHLHART-27, daily candles
Show the dataHide the data
| McDavid | Celebrini | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug | 15% | 22% |
| 31 Aug | 20% | 22% |
| 28 Sep | 21% | 35% |
| 30 Sep | 21% | 32% |
| 14 Oct | 28% | 21% |
| 28 Oct | 51% | 11% |
| 29 Oct | 59% | 5% |
Before the season, Kalshi had McDavid and the Sharks' Macklin Celebrini roughly level, around 20%. Celebrini, 20, was even the favourite at the end of September, at 35%. Since the season started McDavid has more than doubled, from 28% in mid-October to about 60% now, while Celebrini has fallen back.
Celebrini has 16 points (5 goals, 11 assists) in 12 games, a good start but well behind McDavid. The Sharks are 7–6–1.
The early standings
The Hart rewards value to a team, so team results matter. The leaders and the challengers' teams, through games of 29 October:
| Team | Games | Record | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 15 | 9–3–3 | 21 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 13 | 9–2–2 | 20 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 14 | 9–4–1 | 19 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 12 | 8–3–1 | 17 |
| New Jersey Devils | 13 | 8–5–0 | 16 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 15 | 7–6–2 | 16 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 13 | 7–5–1 | 15 |
| San Jose Sharks | 14 | 7–6–1 | 15 |
NHL standings, 29 October 2026.
Edmonton has the second-best points total despite playing two fewer games than Minnesota. If the Oilers stay near the top, McDavid's case is the classic Hart case: the league's top scorer on one of its best teams.
The challengers
- Kirill Kaprizov (Wild): leads the league with 14 goals and has 24 points, on the team with the most points so far. His Kalshi quote is wide, from 6¢ to 18¢, a sign of how thin the market is.
- Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 10 goals and 23 points in 15 games, but Toronto is 7–6–2.
- Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche): 22 points; a perennial finalist, though Colorado's start is middling at 7–5–1.
- Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): the holder, with 15 points in 12 games for an 8–3–1 team.
- Jack Hughes (Devils): 14 points in 13 games.
At this point, the market's view is simple: unless McDavid is injured or slows sharply, it is his award to lose.
McDavid's scoring record
McDavid's best season was 2022-23, when he scored 153 points and won the Hart. Last season he scored 138 and won the Art Ross Trophy but lost the Hart narrowly. His 36 points in 13 games put him ahead of both of those paces, though early-season paces almost always slow.
| Season | Points | Hart result |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 153 | Won |
| 2025-26 | 138 | Second, 10 points behind Kucherov |
| 2026-27 so far | 36 in 13 games | Market favourite at about 60% |
Kalshi versus Polymarket
The two exchanges agree on the favourite but not exactly on the price. Polymarket's mid-price for McDavid, 62.7%, is a few points above Kalshi's last trade of 59¢, and Celebrini ranges from 4¢ to 13¢ on Kalshi against 7.9% on Polymarket. In our price comparison study, 15 Hart outcomes were quoted on both exchanges, with a median gap of about 1.9 points, and only two of them, McDavid among them, had spreads tight enough to pass our liquidity filter. Across liquid markets in general the median gap was 1 point. Thin markets drift apart because few traders watch both, so compare both prices before you trade. Kaprizov is the clearest example: about 7% on Polymarket against about 12% on Kalshi.
Trading a thin market
Award markets that run for a whole season tend to be thin until late in the year. On the Hart, only McDavid's contract has a tight quote; the others have spreads of several cents, and Kaprizov's Kalshi bid was above his last trade on Friday. In our study of bid-ask spreads on Kalshi and Polymarket, Kalshi markets trading fewer than 100 contracts a day had a median spread of 3¢, against 1¢ for the busiest markets. On a 5¢ long shot, a 3¢ spread is more than half the price.
What the prices mean
At about 60¢, a McDavid contract pays $1 if he wins in June, a return of about two-thirds on the money, but it ties up that money for eight months. Long shots at 2–5¢ pay 20–50 times the stake. Because the markets are thin, limit orders are essential; our guide to limit and market orders explains why.
The Hart is awarded after the playoffs, usually in June, but the vote is based on the regular season only. Polymarket's market runs to the end of June 2027.
How the markets settle
- Kalshi pays $1 per contract on the player who wins the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy.
- Polymarket resolves on the official winner; its market closes on 1 July 2027.
- Read each contract's rules for ties and other edge cases before trading.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite for NHL MVP in 2026-27?
Connor McDavid, at about 60% on Kalshi and 63% on Polymarket, after a 36-point start in 13 games.
Who won the Hart Trophy last season?
Nikita Kucherov of the Lightning, by 10 voting points over McDavid, the closest vote since 2001-02.
How many Hart Trophies has McDavid won?
Three, in 2017, 2021 and 2023.
When is the Hart Trophy announced?
After the season, usually in June. The 2025-26 winner was announced on 11 June 2026.
Is the NHL MVP the same as the Hart Trophy?
Yes, in common use. The Ted Lindsay Award is the players' version.
Key points
- Connor McDavid is about a 60% favourite for the 2026-27 Hart Trophy on Kalshi and 63% on Polymarket.
- He has 36 points in 13 games, 12 more than anyone else, and 28 assists.
- He lost last season's Hart to Nikita Kucherov by 10 points, the closest vote since 2001-02.
- Macklin Celebrini, the pre-season co-favourite, has dropped to about 5–13%.
- The markets are thin: use limit orders and expect prices to swing.
Related reading
Odds are market prices, not predictions of ours, and they change quickly. Nothing here is betting advice. Prediction markets are for adults where they are legal, so check the rules where you live.
