NBA names Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction market exchanges and signs a CFTC integrity deal
The NBA has made Kalshi and Polymarket its “Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges”, with official data, NBA branding rights and integrity rules, and signed an information-sharing agreement with the CFTC. What the deal covers, what it leaves out, and why the NFL is now the odd league out.
The NBA has gone into business with prediction markets. On Monday, 26 October, the league named Kalshi and Polymarket its "Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges" and signed a memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on protecting the integrity of basketball markets.
It is the biggest endorsement yet from a major US league, and it lands in the middle of the legal fight over whether sports event contracts are swaps regulated in Washington or bets regulated by the states.
What the NBA announced
- Preferred exchanges. Kalshi and Polymarket get "rights to use NBA IP, marketing rights and promotional activations across media channels within the United States", according to the league's release.
- Official data. Both get official NBA data from Sportradar, the league's data partner, "to operate and settle authorized NBA-related markets".
- DraftKings too. The NBA expanded its existing agreement with DraftKings "to include prediction markets and nationwide promotion", and said it plans to add other sports betting partners and operators "in the coming weeks". So the deal is not exclusive.
- No money terms. Neither the league nor the companies disclosed the value or length of the agreements.
The integrity rules
The agreements come with what the NBA calls "significant integrity protections":
- Limits on permissible markets, with "market restrictions aligned with the NBA's latest sports betting restrictions". The league did not list which contract types are allowed.
- A trading ban on NBA event contracts for league and team personnel.
- Information sharing on investigations and suspicious trading.
"Protecting the integrity of the game is our top priority," said Scott Kaufman-Ross, the NBA's head of media distribution and partnerships. Kalshi's Adam Barrick called the deal "a significant milestone"; Polymarket's Ari Borod said the companies would work on "a safe, transparent prediction market ecosystem for everyone".
The CFTC side
The CFTC said its MOU with the NBA is meant to "protect the integrity of professional basketball in prediction markets", with the two sides "regularly communicating and discussing matters relating to integrity". Chairman Michael Selig said: "The NBA joins the MLB and NHL in taking a responsible step toward protecting sports integrity and market participants from abuses in prediction markets like insider trading and fraud."
Why it matters
- Three of the four big leagues are now in. Baseball and hockey already have similar agreements with the CFTC. The NFL has no commercial deal with prediction markets and has backed the states in the case asking the Supreme Court to let them regulate sports contracts (the NFL's Supreme Court brief).
- The states are still fighting. Utah sued Kalshi on 20 October (Utah's lawsuit), and courts have split on whether the contracts are swaps or gambling (is Kalshi legal?).
- For traders, official data should mean fewer settlement disputes on NBA markets, and the league logo on Kalshi and Polymarket makes them look a lot more like official sportsbooks.
The 2026-27 season is under way. Kalshi's championship market has the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder at about 21% each (NBA championship odds).
