Midterm results 2026: when races will be called, and what Kalshi and Polymarket say 10 days out
The first midterm results arrive after 6 p.m. Eastern on 3 November, but control of Congress could take days: California counts mail ballots until 10 November and Georgia has a 1 December runoff. With $250 million riding on midterm markets and the CFTC watching for manipulation, the timeline and the odds: Democrats 91% for the House, about 67% for the Senate.
In this article
Election night is 3 November, but the answer may not be. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, and control of Congress could be clear that night. It could also take more than a week, as the House did in 2022. Ten days out, prediction markets give Democrats about a 91% chance of winning the House and about 67% for the Senate.
Prices as of 24 October 2026.
The odds 10 days out
| Chamber | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| House: Democrats win | 91% | 91.5% |
| Senate: Democrats win | 66–67% | 67.5% |
Live markets: House on Polymarket · Senate on Polymarket · House on Kalshi · Senate on Kalshi. The races that decide the Senate are in our midterm predictions.
When results will come in
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| 3 November, from 6 p.m. ET | First polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky; results arrive state by state through the night |
| 10 November | Last day California counts mail ballots postmarked by election day |
| 18 November | Alaska runs its ranked-choice tabulation if no Senate candidate passes 50% |
| 20 November | Georgia certifies its results |
| 1 December | Georgia runoff, if no candidate wins a majority |
| 3 December | California counties certify |
| 11 December | California certifies statewide |
| 18 December | Georgia certifies any runoff |
Two other states can slow the count: Maine and Alaska use ranked-choice voting, so a close race may wait for later rounds of tabulation (Maine Senate odds; Alaska Senate odds). Kalshi's own guide to the night, published on 23 October, notes that in 2022 it took more than a week for the House to be called.
What a slow count means for your contracts
Markets settle on the official outcome under each market's rules, not on election-night projections. Polymarket's Senate market, for example, counts runoffs for qualifying races even if they take place after November, so a Georgia runoff on 1 December could decide it. Prices will keep trading until then (how markets resolve).
The money and the watchdog
- $250 million at stake. Open interest in midterm markets was about $250 million on 18 October, according to Dune: $210 million on Kalshi (84%) and $40 million on Polymarket. The median Polymarket midterm position is just $14.
- The CFTC is watching. Chairman Michael Selig said in a television interview this week that the agency is monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the election, crypto.news reported on 24 October. The agency has already settled insider cases this year, including one involving presidential mention markets (mention markets).
