Tech & AI odds
AI model launches, big tech and science. Live prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, most traded first.
- KalshiGoogle market share this week99%Above 16.2%
- KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?4%Before Jan 1, 2027
- KalshiOpenAI market share this week99%Above 15.1%
- KalshiDeepSeek market share this week99%Above 21.7%
- KalshiBest AI this week99%Gemini
- KalshiBest AI in Oct 2026?76%Gemini
- KalshiAnthropic market share this week99%Above 2.8%
- KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?45%Claude
- PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?32%October 20
- KalshiOpenRouter token usage in Oct 12–1810%Above 168T tokens
- PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?98%December 31
- PolymarketWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?>99%October 31
- KalshiAnthropic share of spend on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)82%Above 30.4%
- KalshiTop AI model this week98%gemini-4-argon-high
- KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?99%Above 6
- KalshiOpen vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 18, 202698%Above 43.6%
- PolymarketGTA 6 launch postponed again?3%Yes
- PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?9%Yes
- PolymarketGPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?93%December 31
- KalshiTesla Optimus released this year?4%Yes
- KalshiWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?32%Before Nov 6, 2026
- KalshiWhen will Anthropic release Mythos?11%Before Jan 1, 2027
- KalshiWhen will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index? 70%Before Feb 1, 2027
- KalshiWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?5%Yes
- PolymarketWill Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?12%Yes
- KalshiMeasles cases in 2026?97%Above 5000
- KalshiDeepSeek share of requests on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)93%Above 9.9%
- PolymarketWho will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?14%Saudi Arabia
- KalshiWill a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?14%Before January 1, 2027
- PolymarketTop 5 Most Searched Athletes on Google 202685%Erling Braut Haaland
- KalshiMeta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 202688%Meta
- PolymarketHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?76%0
- KalshiWhat will Mike Sicilia say during Oracle AI World keynote?86%Oracle Cloud Infrastructure / OCI
- KalshiAnthropic share of requests on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)86%Above 5.3%
- PolymarketHighest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?80%45%+
- KalshiWhich AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?85%OpenAI
- KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?71%Central African Republic
- PolymarketHighest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?50%45%+
- PolymarketWill OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?8%Yes
- KalshiWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?18%OpenAI
- KalshiTop Chinese AI Company week of October 12th98%Xiaomi
- PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?31%1480+
- KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?99%Above 120
- KalshiAnthropic vs Google: Highest Arena Score at the end of 202655%Google
- KalshiSpaceX Starship 15th launch?93%Before Dec 11, 2026
- KalshiAI capability growth this year?49%At least 1540 score
- KalshiOpenAI share of spend on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)50%Above 13.5%
- PolymarketWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?26%Yes
- PolymarketPlague declared public health emergency by...?3%December 31
- KalshiNext Gemini Pro model release24%Before Dec 1, 2026
- KalshiWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?20%Yes
- PolymarketOpenAI resumes training on...?83%Not resumed by October 20
- PolymarketNext Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...?84%January 31
- PolymarketRussia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?4%Yes
- PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?90%No release by November 1
- KalshiHow many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?76%Above 1
- KalshiWhere will Waymo operate in 2026?95%Denver, CO
- KalshiUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?5%Yes
- PolymarketHighest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?40%60%+
- KalshiWhat kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?8%Clip-on device for clothing