Elections odds
Elections, polls, parties and politics worldwide. Live prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, most traded first.
2026 midterms: Senate, House and governor oddsEvery race on one page, Polymarket and Kalshi side by side- PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through...?>99%October 17
- KalshiWhat will Trump say during his rally in Kentucky?99%Oil / Gas / Gasoline
- KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?90%Democratic Party
- KalshiKatie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary?99%Before Dec 1, 2026
- PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election77%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?62%Democrats sweep
- PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by...?4%December 31
- PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory50%Other
- PolymarketWhich party will win the House in 2026?91%Democratic Party
- PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?90%No Hormuz Agreement
- PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?52%Gadi Eizenkot
- PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?60%Oil ≥ $85; D Senate
- PolymarketBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms63%Democrats Sweep
- PolymarketNext Press Secretary announced by...?81%December 31
- PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by...?31%December 31
- PolymarketWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?65%Democratic Party
- KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. Senate?63%Democratic Party
- KalshiHow many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?17%48
- PolymarketTexas Senate Election Winner63%James Talarico (D)
- KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?35%Above 52
- KalshiWhen will Katie Zacharia deliver her next White House briefing?1%Before Oct 20, 2026
- PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?18%December 31
- PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?59%March 31
- PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?76%Yes
- PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?64%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
- PolymarketMichigan Senate Election Winner69%Abdul El-Sayed (D)
- KalshiHow many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?18%234-237
- KalshiHow many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?30%Below 193
- PolymarketCalifornia Governor Election Winner96%Xavier Becerra
- PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?6%Yes
- KalshiTrump's RCP approval average on Oct 18, 2026?32%38.7%
- PolymarketUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?31%December 31
- PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?16%Yes
- KalshiWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?9%Before Feb 1, 2027
- KalshiBlue wave in 2026?79%Yes
- PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?61%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
- PolymarketNevada Governor Election Winner59%Aaron Ford (D)
- KalshiWill the SAVE Act become law?3%Yes
- PolymarketIsraeli Legislative Election Winner68%Yashar
- KalshiHow many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (10/11-10/17)99%At least 1
- KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)99%Above 10
- PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?25%Yes
- PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2%Yes
- PolymarketSerbia Parliamentary Election Winner62%Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
- KalshiTrump Truth Social posts this week? (10/11-10/17)58%160-179
- PolymarketArizona Governor Election Winner93%Katie Hobbs (D)
- PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027?58%None before 2027
- PolymarketIsrael Election: Likud # of seats?42%20-24
- PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?4%Yes
- PolymarketNC-11 House Election Winner86%Jamie Ager (D)
- PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Serbia?68%Aleksandar Vučić
- PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?<1%Yes
- PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?96%No Hormuz Agreement
- PolymarketIdaho Senate Election Winner96%Jim Risch (R)
- PolymarketNew Hampshire Senate Election Winner91%Chris Pappas (D)
- PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by...?30%December 31
- PolymarketCA-06 House Election Winner97%Democratic Party
- PolymarketIsraeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)26%December 31
- KalshiClosest Senate race in 2026?16%Kansas
- PolymarketUS imports Russian diesel by...?30%November 30