Longer reads on forecasting, market structure and how crowds price the future.
DraftKings Predictions is the sportsbook giant’s CFTC-regulated prediction market, now running on its own exchange. How it works, which states get sports contracts, age rules, and how it stacks up against Kalshi.
FanDuel Predicts lets you trade event contracts on markets, the economy and, in some states, sports, through a venture with CME Group. How it works, where it is available and how it compares with Kalshi.
Robinhood lets you trade event contracts on sports, the economy and politics next to your stocks. Where your orders go (Kalshi, its own Rothera exchange), what it costs, and when to use Kalshi directly.
Prediction markets give a US recession in 2026 only a 4–6.5% chance, but about 21% for 2027. What the markets measure, how they resolve, and the data that would move them.
Kalshi, Polymarket US, Robinhood, DraftKings, FanDuel, betting exchanges and free forecasting sites: the best Polymarket and Kalshi alternatives depending on where you live and what you want to trade.
Cross-platform arbitrage, negative-risk baskets and the costs that eat them: fees, spreads, capital lock-up and resolution risk. With a worked example.
Both platforms now let you combine several outcomes into one contract. How combos are priced, what the data says about how often they win, and when they make sense.
